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Canadian Macro Overview May 11, 2026
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- Headline CPI, y/y
- 2.3% Mar 2026
- BoC overnight rate
- 2.25% Apr 2026
- Unemployment rate
- 6.9% Apr 2026
Indicator panels
Figure 1.
GDP
| Indicator | Value | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP, y/y | 1.0% | +0.3 pp | Feb 2026 |
| Real GDP, m/m | 0.2% | +0.0 pp | Feb 2026 |
| Per-capita GDP, y/y | TK | TK | TK |
| Output gap | -1.0% | -0.5 pp | 2025Q4 |
Figure 2.
Inflation
| Indicator | Value | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI, y/y | 2.3% | +0.5 pp | Mar 2026 |
| Core-trim, y/y | 2.2% | -0.1 pp | Mar 2026 |
| Core-median, y/y | 2.3% | +0.0 pp | Mar 2026 |
| CPI breadth >3% | 27.2% | +4.9 pp | Mar 2026 |
Figure 3.
Labour
| Indicator | Value | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 6.9% | +0.2 pp | Apr 2026 |
| Aggregate hours, y/y | -0.5% | -0.5 pp | Apr 2026 |
| Wage growth (LFS-Micro) | 3.1% | +0.5 pp | Mar 2026 |
| Employment rate | 60.5% | -0.1 pp | Apr 2026 |
| EI regular beneficiaries, y/y | 8.1% | -4.5 pp | Feb 2026 |
Figure 4.
Policy
| Indicator | Value | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC overnight rate | 2.25% | +0 bps | Apr 2026 |
| 2y GoC yield | 2.94% | +3 bps | May 7, 2026 |
| BoC-Fed spread, 2y | -98 bps | -2 bps | May 7, 2026 |
| Federal budget balance (FYTD) | -$25.6B | -$6.3B | Feb 2026 |
Figure 5.
Markets
| Indicator | Value | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | 1.369 | +0.4% | May 8, 2026 |
| 10y GoC yield | 3.53% | +2 bps | May 7, 2026 |
| TSX Composite | 34.1k | -0.0% | May 8, 2026 |
| WTI | 109.8 | +4.2% | May 4, 2026 |
Figure 6.
Trade
| Indicator | Value | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods trade balance, 3mma | -$2.2B | +$876M | Mar 2026 |
| Current account | -$706M | +$4.6B | 2025Q4 |
| US export share | 66.1% | -2.5 pp | Mar 2026 |
| Terms of trade | 105.5 | +0.6 | 2025Q4 |
Figure 7.
Housing
| Indicator | Value | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLS HPI, y/y | -4.6% | +0.1 pp | Mar 2026 |
| Housing starts, 3mma | 241k | -15k | Mar 2026 |
| Bank mortgage arrears | 0.28% | +0.01 pp | Feb 2026 |
| Housing affordability | 42.7% | -0.5 pp | 2025Q4 |
Figure 8.
Research
-
Mortgage renewal wall: has it peaked?
The 2026 renewal cohort is the largest single tranche in the stack. We map where the residual transmission lands through 2027.
Coming soon
-
BoC vs. Fed: how far can the divergence run?
TK basis points and counting. We trace the CAD, GoC curve, and credit channels that would force a back-off, and where the breakpoints sit.
Coming soon
-
Per-capita output: deceleration or weakness?
The headline labour print is flattering. The per-capita series is not. We separate the population-deceleration story from the cyclical weakness story.
Coming soon